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Subject & Goals:
The major objective of the CONSAVE 2050 programme is to contribute to ensuring sustainable growth of air transportation with regard to environmental issues. The output of the scenario quantification exercise will go a step beyond (and improve) existing scenarios on aviation and emissions (IPCC/SRES), helping to develop a common European understanding on constrained aviation scenarios and emissions. In addition, the project will generate valuable input for FP6 research programmes in terms of a defined range of boundary conditions for air transport development, and will help to support and enhance the competitiveness of European aviation industry.
The project work consists of developing quantified scenarios on aviation and emissions with focus on the Year 2050, with a look on the short (Year 2025) and long (Year 2100) term development relevant for aviation industry planning and climate models respectively. It will include constrained conditions and the newest “background” data on external fields to transport and air transport, which are setting the frame for the long term development in aviation.
Description of work:
During CONSAVE 2050 qualitative scenarios already developed under the European Thematic Network AERONET will be modified and adapted after having chosen the key factors to be quantified. IPCC/SRES work will be included in the following quantification of background scenarios, where “background scenarios” describe transport, the external fields to transport and the supply side of aviation, as air transport technologies. Finally the quantification of a set of scenarios on aviation and related emissions will be performed with the help of the AERO model, successfully applied for projects for international boards as EC and ICAO/CAEP. The preliminary results will be distributed for a broad European review among interested experts and potential users of the results of the aviation community, not involved in the project. The review process will consist of two parts: a questioning and a final Review workshop. The outcome of the European experts review will be used for modifications of the preliminary results and included in the final report. In parallel to the scenario work relevant external activities will be carefully analysed in order to avoid duplication of work.
The project, with a duration of 24 months (9/2002-8/2004), will be supported by management and co-ordination activities. One of the major CONSAVE 2050 activities will be the dissemination of the results. Of paramount importance to the work is the broad distribution and acceptance of the results. Thus emphasis will be given to the preparation of “public domain” reports, the experts review and the web-based communication of results. Furthermore a strong contact to other relevant groups (e.g. to Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe – ACARE) and stakeholders not involved directly in the project activities and the co-ordination with complementary projects working in a similar direction is envisaged.
Introduction (structure of the workplan and overall methodology)
The envisaged scenario development and quantification work is broken down in three logical steps (WP1 – WP3), supported by the organisation of a European review on the preliminary results and a strong interaction with relevant external projects (WP4) and by the co-ordination and management activities (WP5).
The work will be performed by a Consortium which consists of DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Co-ordinator), NLR, QinetiQ, DLH (Deutsche Lufthansa), with IIASA (International Institute for Applied System Analysis) and MVA as subcontractors of DLR and NLR (Nationaal Lucht- en Ruimtevaartlaboratorium), respectively, and EADS (Airbus) as supporter in the following structure:
• WP1 Key factors and qualitative background scenarios
• WP2 Quantification of background scenarios
• WP3 Quantification of scenarios on aviation and emissions
• WP4 Organisation of a European review on preliminary results and contacts to external activities
• WP 5 Management and co-ordination
WP1 – Key factors and qualitative background scenarios: The substantive technical project work starts with the examination, review and choice of the key scenario descriptors (that have to be quantified) to be used as input for other work packages. These will need to reflect the interests of key stakeholders (WP1A). This activity represents the development and completion of the qualitative work on „background“ scenarios started already under the EU-funded Thematic Network AERONET. „Background“ scenarios are defined as scenarios describing the “scene-setting frame” for the long-term development of aviation, for example, developments external to aviation but which will influence demand for air transport and the way that the air transport system reacts. This element of work includes, for instance, consistency checks and regularising for regional differences. The completion, adaptation and modification of these existing outline qualitative scenarios will be performed under WP1B and is critical to the validity of the end product. This work package will also include using the latest findings/developments from the IPCC/SRES macro-economic scenario process to check the background scenarios developed within the AERONET activity. It will include a project workshop to agree upon the constrained qualitative scenarios. A key element of this work package will be valuable assistance from the subcontractor IIASA, leader of the authors team of the IPCC Working Group III Special Report “Emissions Scenarios” (2000). (The support of IIASA will ensure, that the findings and experiences from this newest relevant IPCC scenario work on the long-term development of emission-causing areas of human activities - including those, which are frame-setting for aviation - can be made available for CONSAVE 2050 in the necessary detail. Among others, IIASA will help to organise, host and participate in the planned workshop - Vienna, 1/2003 - on constrained „background“ scenarios.)
WP2 – Quantification of background scenarios: Selecting the appropriate background scenarios, drawing upon IPCC/SRES knowledge is the first element of this task. In turn this leads to quantification of the background scenarios for 2050 (and the identification of related factors for 2025 and 2100) as the foundation upon which to build the aviation specific elements. IIASA expertise will support the quantification of the background scenarios. The involvement of this IPCC expertise, external to the aviation sector, promotes consistency with broader macro-economic scenario work, avoids duplication of effort and ensures robustness in the main underlying assumptions. The intention is to quantify the scenarios designed in WP1B by identifying, selecting and augmenting as necessary, the respective closest IPCC/SRES scenarios.
WP3 – Quantification of scenarios on aviation and its emissions: A core activity within CONSAVE 2050 is the quantification of the scenarios on aviation and emissions (WP3). For this purpose the AERO model will be used. The detailed qualitative descriptions arising from WP1 will define the aviation and emissions specific factors comprising each of the boundary and intermediate scenarios for 2050. These elements of the scenarios will be modelled in WP3, to build upon the quantification of the background scenarios in WP2.
Whilst the AERO model is used as a tool to test policy-options, a vital feature of the model is that the user can define the (future) scenario as a context for testing policy measures. The model can then generate forecasts for the scenarios either without or with the measures being reflected. A great deal of flexibility is provided for defining different scenario specifications. The main scenario variables fall within four major domains: macro-economic, demographic, transport market and technological development. Most scenario variables also allow for differentiation by aircraft characteristics, traffic categories, and IATA region (-pair). The user can also vary basic input assumptions, such as demand elasticity, rates of depreciation, and aircraft emission indices.
The AERO model is thus extremely well-suited to forecasting the effects of alternative scenario assumptions. The subcontractor MVA will assist NLR in setting values to the variables available in the AERO model that best represent the CONSAVE 2050 scenarios. However, there may be some aspects of the CONSAVE 2050 scenarios that are “transparent” to the AERO model, as those features are not directly addressed through model variables. MVA will explore the possible chain of effects of these factors so far as they affect the aviation community, including resulting interactions within the community. To validate these effects and to maintain consistency with scenario tests conducted with the AERO, correlation between the factors considered outside and within the models will be addressed. It may then prove reasonable to proxy at least some of the effects of the non-modelled factors by adjusting model inputs, and thus ultimately obtaining quantified and consistent model results of the factors in combination. EADS, Toulouse will give support by placing its expertise in forecasting (with the Airbus-model) and its databases at the disposal of WP3.
The outcome and feed-back of the review process (see below) will be analysed carefully and used – if appropriate – as input for final modifications of the quantification procedure.
To apply the AERO model NLR assisted by MVA (its AERO partner, and subcontractor in the CONSAVE project) and EADS Airbus (in an advisory role in the CONSAVE project) will do the following work tasks:
1. Pre-processing: Preparation of data sets (partly from information from WP2) for input in the AERO-model. Foreseen are one set for each year 1992 and 2000, and 2-3 sets for each year 2025 and 2050 (2100 as far as possible). Preparation includes small model adjustments (if needed) and preparatory work to use alternative variables within the models to represent key scenario factors which are not available in the models.
2. Processing: a) AERO-model runs and analyses of results. - b) Analyses of the effects of relevant external factors, which could not be taken into account by the models. Quantitative projections of key descriptors of scenarios on aviation and its emissions are calculated, for instance factors on aviation demand and supply, emissions totals, etceteras.
3. Post-processing: a) Additional analyses of results of AERO model runs by comparison with available results from other projects or/and model runs as far as possible b) Post-processing the outcome of the European Review; additional use of the AERO model to take into account the recommendations for modifications developed during the European Review on the preliminary study results.
c) Work Package reporting, including contribution to the Final Report.
Furthermore, as part of WP3, the unconstrained IPCC/1999 scenarios will be modified for comparison reasons, substituting the “old” inputs of the IPCC/1992 background scenarios on the long-term development in economy by the new information of the IPCC/SRES work.
WP4 – Organisation of a European review on preliminary study results and contacts to external activities: In month 15 the preliminary results of the study will be reported. A key task within WP4A is to organise a broad review of this material among a representative group of European experts and stakeholders in aviation. This review process will be ongoing from an early stage within the project as it necessary to secure technical verification of elements within the scenarios before these are too advanced. The review process culminates with a workshop that explains the composition of the scenarios, exposes these to critical assessment and provides for the modification as necessary of preliminary study results. This process ensures that the scenarios produced in the project are robust, that they will reflect the key perspectives of the stakeholder community and are geared to use by the industry, the scientific community and the policy and regulatory communities. The process of ensuring valuable output from CONSAVE 2050 requires continuing and close interaction with a number of related activities taking place within Europe and cognisance of other activities occurring in the broader international community. This process is critical to the success of the project and to its acceptance and application in the aviation community. WP4B involves linkages from the commencement of the project with a number of activities to promote consistency, information exchange, efficiency of effort and avoidance of duplication. Key linkages will be with the EC/AERO2K and TRADE-OFF projects, the EC/AERONET thematic network, the industry ACARE (Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe) scenario activity, EUROCONTROL scenario work and with a number of national or collaborative scenario projects that bear upon aviation and its emissions. With CONSAVE 2050 scenarios intended to be a significant European contribution to the international debate on aircraft emissions impacts, scenario activity taking place internationally will be monitored and appropriate linkages established.
WP5 – Management and co-ordination: The project work will be supported by management and co-ordination activities led by DLR. An important task will be to organise internal assessment of preliminary results of the various work packages by the consortium. An Advisory Committee of stakeholders/customers will be organised as part of WP5 by DLH. Meetings are planned for month 4 and month 21 for an assessment of the outcomes of WP1 and the results of the project, respectively, to ensure that the requirements of users are taken into account.
Work in this work package will include the development of a Project Management Plan and the preparation of administrative report. Project meetings will be held on a regular basis (6 months) bringing together all partners for a discussion of the state of the ongoing work and the future activities.
The results of the work packages WP1 – WP4 will be integrated in the final report within WP5. A major action will be the dissemination of the results - of paramount importance to the work is the broad distribution and acceptance of the results. Thus emphasis will be given to the preparation of “public domain” reports, the experts review and the web-based communication of results.
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