The modelling of cause-and-effect relations in passenger and commercial transport is of vital significance for transport planning, administration and politics.
On satellite images, in regions with high levels of shipping, you can find long, low-lying clouds, which are clearly not natural in origin. Known as 'ship tracks', these are the result of emissions from ships.
DLR (CC-BY 3.0).
With the increasing provision of traffic information through modern information and communication technologies such as PDAs, smartphones, mobile phones and the Internet, individual transport users will in future be able to travel more flexibly, more rapidly and more comfortably in their chosen mode of transport.
We need a powerful, reliable, safe and secure transport system, to meet fundamental societal and economic demands. Moreover, this system has to be designed sustainably, also with regard to the transformation of the energy system and the requirements of climate protection. Our aspiration is to reproduce analytically the process chain of transport development and associated interactions with environment, economy, and society under ever changing general conditions. Furthermore, changes in the transport system due to technological innovations, as well as regulatory and fiscal measures are taken into account.
To develop the transport system specifically towards our goals, we work on consistent measures to support decision-makers. In so doing, the previous approach of an integrated consideration of the causes of transport, transport development, and traffic effects is being driven forward consequently. To be able to quantify the possible developments in the transport system in scenarios, we are working on a modular and integrated model system. The starting point for this is a thorough understanding of the changes of mobility needs and the demand for both passenger and commercial transport.
Building on this, we extend our microscopic passenger transport model by integrating non-motorized modes of transport and multimodal mobility concepts. We will furthermore better represent the competitive situation between road, rail, and air transport on long-distance relations and also allow for the determination of traffic emissions on a small scale. This is complemented by our work on an impact analysis, in particular, regarding air quality, climate and traffic noise. We are producing spatially and temporally resolved emission inventories for global, regional, and local emission distributions, and quantify the effects on the quality of air, clouds and climate. As far as traffic noise in concerned, we are conducting research on methods and models for predicting noise immissions for given traffic volumes. Furthermore, we estimate the effects of noise on health, and assess the effects of noise mitigation measures and low-noise operating procedures.
For the implementation of transport and environmental policy objectives, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms of regulatory measures. Within the scope of our associated analyses, we extend the range by operational measures for traffic management, as well as by mobility influencing aspects of urban development and regional planning. In our examinations we consider, too, the influence of technological developments, as well as economic and societal effects. In so doing, we, in particular, quantify the effect of transport development on employment and gross value added. When drawing up our scenarios on alternative paths in transport development, we will also present inter-dependencies with the energy system.
Thus, we take care for a comprehensive and consistent analysis of the transport system under consideration of decisive general conditions, even if they are beyond the actual transport sector. With the results of our work, it will be possible for the very first time, to assess transport policy objectives and options for action with regard to their effectiveness in order to gain a verifiable and transparent basis for decisions.
Last modified:09/10/2013 11:34:19