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Earth System Model Evaluation

A research group in the Department 'Earth System Modelling'

Head of group: Prof. Dr. Veronika Eyring

The group “Earth System Model Evaluation” examines the performance of models through a systematic comparison of model outputs with observations. The evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) with observations is crucial for model improvement and an improved process understanding of the climate system. It is also a vital prerequisite for more trustworthy climate projections of the 21st century to be used as guidelines for climate policy. The group’s tasks in particular include the development and application of efficient methods for ESM evaluation and the development of new numerical tools to analyse large data sets.

Our research topics are:

• Analysis of Earth system model simulations in combination with observations to better understand the processes of climate change and the climate system.
• Development of ‘Emergent Constraints‘ to constrain key climate feedbacks in the Earth System with observations
• Constraining multi-model climate projections with observations
• Evaluation and documentation of systematic biases in Earth System models using observations
• Quantification of climate forcings and feedbacks
• Predictability of decadal climate simulations
• Development of a diagnostic tool for efficient routine evaluation of ESMs with observations
• Development and application of diagnostics and quantitative metrics for an improved process-oriented model evaluation
• Identification of model shortcomings and recommendations for model improvements
• Contributions to international Model Intercomparison Projects (coordination, model simulations, and analysis), in particular to CMIP.

Our main tools and data are:

• The ESMValTool for routine and improved evaluation of Earth System models with observations
• Simulations with the global atmosphere-chemistry model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry)
• Simulations with Earth System models participating in international Model Intercomparison Projects (in particular CMIP)
• Observations and meteorological reanalyses from Observations for Climate Model Intercomparisons (obs4MIPs), Analysis for Model Intercomparison Projects (ana4MIPs) and other sources

The Earth System Model Evaluation (ESMVal) group is strongly linked to international research activities within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), for example with substantial contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), and contributes regularly to international climate and ozone assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The ESMVal group also works closely together with the department of Climate Modelling of the University of Bremen and with the Climate Informatics Group at the DLR Institute of Data Sciences in Jena.

Contact:

Prof. Dr. Veronika Eyring

Head of Earth System Model Evaluation Group and Chair of CMIP Panel