Funding Organisation: German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
Co-operation: Fraunhofer-Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (IWES), Ingenieurbüro für neue Energien (IfnE), DLR (Lead)
Project duration: January 2009 to March 2012 (completed)
Contact: Dr. Thomas Pregger
Actual: Download: Long-term scenarios 2011 (1MB) as pdf-document, Annex (in German only).
Long term scenario 2010 (1,7MB) and Annex (1,4MB) as pdf-document (in German only).
The Long term scenario 2009 can be downloaded on the BMU website.
Objective of the project is the development of long term energy system scenarios to identify non-regret strategies for the deployment of renewable energy sources in Germany, taking into account national as well as European targets with respect to climate protection, security of supply, and international convergence.
Scenarios will analyse developments during the time from now to 2020/2030, which is largely determined by today’s concrete policy targets and legislation in place, it will describe long term development of the energy sector until the year 2050, and will develop a perspective on potential development pathways until the end of the century. Key policy targets to be achieved is a share of 30% renewables in electricity generation by 2020 and 50% by 2030, a 50% share of renewables to final energy consumption in Germany by 2050, and the transition towards a supply system which is completely based on renewable energies until 2100. Based on scenario results policy measures are identified which shall facilitate compliance with these targets in an efficient way.
The following aspects will be analysed in detail during scenario development: