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Long term scenarios and strategies for the deployment of renewable energies in Germany under the consideration of European and global developments

Funding Organisation: German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety

Co-operation: Fraunhofer-Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik (IWES), Ingenieurbüro für neue Energien (IfnE), DLR (Lead) 

Project duration: January 2009 to March 2012 (completed)

Contact: Dr. Thomas Pregger

Actual: Download: Long-term scenarios 2011 (1MB) as pdf-document, Annex (in German only).

Long term scenario 2010 (1,7MB) and Annex (1,4MB) as pdf-document (in German only).

The Long term scenario 2009 can be downloaded on the BMU website.

Objective of the project is the development of long term energy system scenarios to identify non-regret strategies for the deployment of renewable energy sources in Germany, taking into account national as well as European targets with respect to climate protection, security of supply, and international convergence.

Scenarios will analyse developments during the time from now to 2020/2030, which is largely determined by today’s concrete policy targets and legislation in place, it will describe long term development of the energy sector until the year 2050, and will develop a perspective on potential development pathways until the end of the century. Key policy targets to be achieved is a share of 30% renewables in electricity generation by 2020 and 50% by 2030, a 50% share of renewables to final energy consumption in Germany by 2050, and the transition towards a supply system which is completely based on renewable energies until 2100. Based on scenario results policy measures are identified which shall facilitate compliance with these targets in an efficient way.

The following aspects will be analysed in detail during scenario development:

• Technical and structural options for the improved integration of fluctuating renewable energies into the supply system (e.g. virtual power plants, energy storage). Technical requirements for an extension of the existing infrastructure are analysed. Costs and benefits of system integration will be quantified.
• Concepts for a decentralised energy supply on the municipality level which is completely based on renewable energies. Strategies for the complementary use of decentralised local and supra-regional renewable energy resources are developed.
• Concepts for the trans-European exchange of electricity from renewable sources will be further developed. The large wind and hydropower resources in Northern Europe as well as excellent conditions for concentrating solar thermal power plants in the Mediterranean region can help to balance short term and seasonal fluctuations in local renewable energy supply at low costs.
• Criteria for the further development of the conventional power plant mix will be developed to ensure complementarity between the continuously increasing share of renewable energy capacity and new fossil fired power plants.
• As electric vehicles have the potential to significantly increase energy efficiency in the transport sector, it will be analysed to which extent the additional electricity demand induced by electric vehicles can be supplied by renewable energies. Also the use of hydrogen from renewable energies as a transport fuel will be considered.
• The German strategy for the future deployment of renewables will put into context of the European renewable energy strategy and the expected post-Kyoto mechanism.
• Appropriate policy instruments will be analysed with regard to their costs and benefits.