Renewbility II

The federal government intends to reduce CO₂ emissions by 40% by 2020 compared to 1990. In order to launch targeted measures in the transport sector, we need basic knowledge about what these measures can contribute to achieve emission reduction targets. In this context, Renewbility II develops various model instruments, which quantify the effect of various transport policy measures for reducing CO₂ emissions.

Project

Renewbility II continues Renewbility I. The previous project concluded that it is possible to reduce CO₂ emissions from transport by 2030 by nearly 25% compared to 2005. This result can be achieved by a series of transport policies, for example the expansion of public transport services, an increase in truck tolls and fuel prices and an increased use of electric vehicles in passenger and commercial transport. Within Renewbility II, the data base will be updated, instruments will be developed and new packages of measures will be examined for their effectiveness. The focus is on:

• road transport, rail transport, inland waterway transport and air traffic in Germany
• direct and indirect emissions
• demonstrating the impact of traffic measures on the economic development

As in the previous project, stakeholders are involved with identifying effective measures within the framework of a holistic strategy for a sustainable mobility. Representatives of the automotive industry, railway industry, energy sector, logistics sector and environmental NGOs are involved in defining the measure set. These external experts should develop a common scenario on a consensus basis, reflecting different positions within the transport sector.

Objectives

• It is a special characteristic of this modeling approach that transport policies are evaluated microscopically for three exemplary regions and that resulting changes are considered for the macroscopic model for traffic demand in Germany. Knowledge about mobility patterns from the „Mobility in Germany 2008“ survey („MiD 2008“) forms the basis for modeling the traffic demand in passenger transport.
• The effects of the economic crisis are considered in the basic development of the freight traffic by 2030. Especially the GDP development and the employment structure are adapted to this. The effects on employment in the basic development will also be integrated into models of passenger transport.

Approach

For Renewbility II, the DLR - Institute of Transport Research is in charge of microscopic and macroscopic modeling of traffic demand in passenger and freight transport as well as for modeling the registrations of new passenger cars and commercial vehicles.

Contracting entity

• German Federal Environment Agency (UBA)
• German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)

Partners

• DLR - Institute of Transport Research
• Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI
• Öko-Institut e.V. Institute for Applied Ecology

Project duration

2010 - 2012