The car of the future will be powered by oil and electricity. This is the only way that expectations of car drivers can be met, as established by the 'Car market until 2040' study. The study clearly shows that even with climate protection targets of 45 g CO2/km for new vehicles in 2040, petrol and diesel will continue to be the main fuel used in highly efficient combustion engines for 85 per cent of new vehicles and 95 per cent of existing vehicles in the future.
While electric vehicle technology is highlighted at the International Motor Show Germany in Frankfurt, the study gives a more precise picture of car drivers' transport requirements and needs with regard to drive technologies. The study projects the general political conditions onto car driver purchasing behaviour. This approach not only offers an extremely pragmatic, realistic picture, it also makes the study unique.
It becomes clear that the debate about CO2 targets and electromobility is not being conducted in a consistent or honest way. More than anything, though, political objectives are largely ignoring the needs of car drivers. As the findings from the DLR study clearly show, true debate must recognise the fact that the use of cars with a purely electric motor will be limited even after 2020.
The combustion engine will still need to be on board cars alongside the battery even if CO2 targets are increased after 2020. This is based on customer expectations that their car will be reliable in the sense of permanent availability and covering occasional long distances.
Car drivers must also be prepared for significant additional costs due to increased CO2 targets since the higher purchase costs for cars will only be compensated by savings on fuel costs to a limited extent.
Decisions about future personal mobility must not be taken without taking people and their needs into consideration. The DLR study shows that oil will remain an important energy source to meet people's transport needs in the future while also achieving climate targets.