20st Air Transport Research Society World Conference (Rhodes/Greece)
In the paper “A New Model of Long Term Forecasting the Air Passenger Demand, Number of Air Transport Movements and Cargo Volume of Germany”, Marc Gelhausen, Peter Berster and Dieter Wilken have developed and applied a “classical” model of forecasting the total number of air passengers and aircraft movements at German airports for many years. The model follows the traditional approach of forecasting the trip generation, spatial distribution and assignment to routes and aircraft movements. In recent years it has been found more and more difficult to update and verify the model because of lack of specific data. We have therefore developed a more versatile model, which directly forecasts the total number of air passengers and of air transport movements at the ensemble of German airports. The forecast functions are co-integrated structural regression models which have been econometrically estimated taking into account time series data of 1992 to 2014. The paper describes the model approaches and discusses advantages and disadvantages of the classical and new model approach.
Sven Maertens, Holger Pabst und Wolfgang Grimme presented a paper titled “The development of the potential for low-cost, one-stop connecting services in Europe – From ‘self-hubbing’ to reliable ‘low cost connecting services’?” in which they apply an SQL-based modelling approach for the identification of marketable one-stop connections between low cost carriers (LCC) from OAG schedules, considering pre-defined restrictions such as for connecting times and detour factors. They found that the European LCC network now allows for about 162k weekly one-stop connections, which is a big rise since 2006 but still far below the almost 725k connections offered by the network carriers. At airport-pair level, though, the low-cost sector already comes relatively close to the network carriers (15.9k vs. 25.3k). The authors also discussed the most fundamental operational and commercial restrictions that should be overcome to fully exploit the identified potential of flight connections between LCC. This includes the questions of missed connections and baggage through-handling.
In the paper entitled “Impact of what-if capability on intermodal traffic management – knowing and reacting on issues before they arise” written by Olaf Milbredt, Christian Werner, Florian Rudolph, and Erik Grunewald intermodal traffic management involving airports and railway were considered by using what-if capability. Three scenarios were simulated with our simulation environment comprising microscopic simulation of a terminal building and attached management tools. The first scenario serves as a baseline. In the third scenario we considered – as in the second one – a delay of trains to the airport with measures assessed by the what-if capability applied. We were able to show that the number of passenger failed to reach the gate in time were tremendously reduced by applying the measures as was predicted by the what-if functionality.
14th World Conference on Transport Research (Shanghai)
In the paper entitled “Evaluating conditions and impact of intermodal traffic management involving airports and railways” written by Olaf Milbredt, Erik Grunewald, Florian Rudolph, and Thomas Christ intermodal traffic management involving airports and railway were considered. We focused on the delay of the train to the airport leading to passengers that fail to reach their gate in time. To track the timestamps we introduce the notion of a passenger-trajectory. The passenger trajectory consists of pairs of points in space and time, where the passenger passes a certain milestone of the journey. Our simulation environment -- including microscopic simulation and management structure -- provides the sensitivity of Key Performance Indicators such as boarding score on the change of delay profiles. This provides a measure for the feasibility of an action based on its extent focusing on cross-modal operation changes.
Janina Scheelhaase, on behalf of the co-authors Robert Sausen, Katrin Dahlmann, Martin Jung, Herman Keimel, Hendrik Nieße, Martin Schaefer and Florian Wolters, presented a paper on “Factors determining airlines’ costs for climate protecting market-based measures” in Shanghai. This paper investigates the factors influencing airline’s costs for climate protecting market-based measures. It is based on selected results of the interdisciplinary research project AviClim (Including Aviation in International Protocols for Climate Protection). AviClim has investigated how to limit aviation’s full climate impact best from an environmental and economic point of view. In this research project, both long-lived CO2 and short-lived non-CO2 effects of aviation have been addressed simultaneously and climate protecting scenarios for aviation in the timeframe 2010-2030 have been developed. On this basis, the factors determining aviation’s costs for climate protecting measures have been analysed. Results indicate that the choice of the market-based measure, it’s regional scope, the metric chosen for the translation of the non-CO2 impacts into equivalent CO2 and the prices for equivalent CO2 are important factors for airline’s costs. An analysis for single flights reveals remarkable differences in specific emissions (tons CO2 equivalent/flight kilometre). An investigation for groups of airlines differentiated by business model and country of origin indicates that the world regions served by the airlines, the business model, the length and the emission characteristics of the flights are further important factors for the costs of the regulating measure.