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Global cargo gravitation model: airports matter for forecasts
21 March 2022
The paper presents a forecasting model for air freight on airport level in a global scope. Gravity models are utilized and adapted to airport regions, yielding high resolution future freight potential for individual airports.
The determinants of air cargo flows and the role of multinational agreements: An empirical comparison with trade and air passenger flows
17 March 2022
This paper analyses the effect of the standard gravity model variables and of various multinational agreements—namely the Euro, the European Union (EU), the Schengen Agreement and other regional trade agreements (RTAs)—on the volume of air cargo flows.
The effect of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on aviation demand: An empirical comparison with the impact of ticket taxes
12 January 2022
This study gives an empirical ex-post evaluation on the effect of the EU ETS on aviation demand using a gravity model approach. The results of the paper suggest that the EU ETS has so far had no statistically significant effects on intra-EEA (European Economic Area) air passenger flows.
New joint paper from DLR and IU International University on future skills of flight attendants in times of COVID-19-related job uncertainty
3 January 2022
“Future skills” increase employees’ prospects in the labor market, particularly in dynamic times, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. (Not only) in Germany, flight attendants represent an occupational group without state-recognized vocational occupation who are particularly affected by the pandemic due to serious and long-lasting declines in air transport volumes. An empirical study conducted by the German Aerospace Center and IU International University, which has been published in the journal Administrative Sciences, investigates future skills of German-speaking flight attendants.
Corona und dann? Neue DLR-Prognose für den Luftverkehr bis 2040
30 November 2021
Die Coronakrise sorgte für eine historische Zäsur im weltweiten Luftverkehr. Mittlerweile scheint die Talsohle der Entwicklung durchschritten. Werden sich die Pandemie und die Veränderungen in Gesellschaft, Wirtschaft und Politik langfristig auf die globale Luftverkehrsentwicklung auswirken? Wenn ja, wie werden diese Auswirkungen aussehen? Diese Fragen hat kürzlich das DLR-Institut für Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr untersucht.
The aviation and maritime sectors and the EU ETS: challenges and impacts
26 October 2021
A joint study by CE Delft and DLR commissioned by the European Parliament (TRAN Committee) discusses the challenges and impacts resulting from the integration of the maritime sector in the EU ETS, and from a more stringent EU ETS for aviation, as proposed by the European Commission in its Fit for 55 package. The study considers implementation challenges, consequences for the competitiveness of European stakeholders, e.g. caused by carbon leakage, and impacts on sectoral employment.
What are the economic effects of replacing short-haul flights?
7 October 2021
The presentation held at the “19. Wiener Eisenbahnkolloquium” illustrates the traffic and economic effects of replacing short-haul flights, as is currently being discussed for reasons of climate protection in Austria, among other places, where the Linz-Vienna route has already been discontinued.
New joint paper from DIW, DLR and Universitat Pompeu Fabra: Only Strict Coronavirus Regulations for Vacationers Affect Passenger Air Traffic between Germany and Mallorca
7 October 2021
Mallorca is the most popular foreign travel destination for German tourists, with almost five million flying to the Balearic island every year. However, the coronavirus pandemic brought passenger air traffic to a virtual standstill in March 2020. Flights to Mallorca resumed in June 2020, but the seat offerings were only between ten and 86 percent of the 2019 level depending on the week. A DIW Weekly Report prepared by DIW, DLR and Universitat Pompeu Fabra identifies the key coronavirus restrictions impacting air travel between Germany and Mallorca.
New paper on the effects and prospects of the long-distance coach market in Germany
3 August 2021
During the COVID-19 pandemic, long-distance bus transport in Germany came to an almost complete standstill. Since its liberalization in 2013, long-distance bus transport has not only provided low-cost mobility, it has also contributed to income and employment in Germany. In a new article published in Wirtschaftsdienst, researchers from DLR estimate the value added and employment created by the sector for the pre-COVID-19 year 2018. The analysis suggests that the sector will reach pre-crisis levels relatively quickly as it mainly serves private travellers, especially VFR (visiting friends and relatives) travellers whose behavioural changes are less likely than those of business travellers.
Expert statements on the revision of the EU ETS for aviation and the use of synthetic fuel
13 July 2021
Researchers from our Institute were invited to make expert statements on the further development of the European emissions trading system (EU ETS) and on the use of synthetic fuels in aviation. The European Union is currently working on a revision of the EU ETS as part of the “Fit for 55” package, which should take into account the more stringent EU climate targets, the growing importance of so-called non-CO2 effects of air traffic, the possibilities of using more sustainable fuels and the recent introduction of the global CORSIA offsetting system which partly overlaps with the EU ETS in its current form.
DEPA 2050 Project: Development Pathways for Aviation up to 2050
DLR Global Aviation Monitor: Deutlicher Einbruch im globalen und insbesondere deutschen Luftverkehr erwartet
Decline in low-cost flights despite a record number of routes in summer 2019
Paper on options to continue the EU ETS for aviation in a CORSIA-World
DLR Global Aviation Monitor: Rückläufige Flugbewegungsaufkommen in Deutschland, verhaltenes Wachstum in der Welt bis Ende 2019
DLR Low Cost Monitor
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