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Corona und dann? Neue DLR-Prognose für den Luftverkehr bis 2040
30 November 2021
Die Coronakrise sorgte für eine historische Zäsur im weltweiten Luftverkehr. Mittlerweile scheint die Talsohle der Entwicklung durchschritten. Werden sich die Pandemie und die Veränderungen in Gesellschaft, Wirtschaft und Politik langfristig auf die globale Luftverkehrsentwicklung auswirken? Wenn ja, wie werden diese Auswirkungen aussehen? Diese Fragen hat kürzlich das DLR-Institut für Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr untersucht.
The aviation and maritime sectors and the EU ETS: challenges and impacts
26 October 2021
A joint study by CE Delft and DLR commissioned by the European Parliament (TRAN Committee) discusses the challenges and impacts resulting from the integration of the maritime sector in the EU ETS, and from a more stringent EU ETS for aviation, as proposed by the European Commission in its Fit for 55 package. The study considers implementation challenges, consequences for the competitiveness of European stakeholders, e.g. caused by carbon leakage, and impacts on sectoral employment.
What are the economic effects of replacing short-haul flights?
7 October 2021
The presentation held at the “19. Wiener Eisenbahnkolloquium” illustrates the traffic and economic effects of replacing short-haul flights, as is currently being discussed for reasons of climate protection in Austria, among other places, where the Linz-Vienna route has already been discontinued.
New joint paper from DIW, DLR and Universitat Pompeu Fabra: Only Strict Coronavirus Regulations for Vacationers Affect Passenger Air Traffic between Germany and Mallorca
7 October 2021
Mallorca is the most popular foreign travel destination for German tourists, with almost five million flying to the Balearic island every year. However, the coronavirus pandemic brought passenger air traffic to a virtual standstill in March 2020. Flights to Mallorca resumed in June 2020, but the seat offerings were only between ten and 86 percent of the 2019 level depending on the week. A DIW Weekly Report prepared by DIW, DLR and Universitat Pompeu Fabra identifies the key coronavirus restrictions impacting air travel between Germany and Mallorca.
New paper on the effects and prospects of the long-distance coach market in Germany
3 August 2021
During the COVID-19 pandemic, long-distance bus transport in Germany came to an almost complete standstill. Since its liberalization in 2013, long-distance bus transport has not only provided low-cost mobility, it has also contributed to income and employment in Germany. In a new article published in Wirtschaftsdienst, researchers from DLR estimate the value added and employment created by the sector for the pre-COVID-19 year 2018. The analysis suggests that the sector will reach pre-crisis levels relatively quickly as it mainly serves private travellers, especially VFR (visiting friends and relatives) travellers whose behavioural changes are less likely than those of business travellers.
Expert statements on the revision of the EU ETS for aviation and the use of synthetic fuel
13 July 2021
Researchers from our Institute were invited to make expert statements on the further development of the European emissions trading system (EU ETS) and on the use of synthetic fuels in aviation. The European Union is currently working on a revision of the EU ETS as part of the “Fit for 55” package, which should take into account the more stringent EU climate targets, the growing importance of so-called non-CO2 effects of air traffic, the possibilities of using more sustainable fuels and the recent introduction of the global CORSIA offsetting system which partly overlaps with the EU ETS in its current form.
DEPA 2050 Project: Development Pathways for Aviation up to 2050
30 April 2021
The project DEvelopment Pathways for Aviation up to 2050 (DEPA 2050) developed pre-Covid 19 aviation scenarios and analysed the corresponding long-term effects up to the year 2050. Besides the consideration of vehicle types with conventional propulsion concepts further disruptive concepts have been considered (i.e. hybrid-electric aircraft/supersonic aircraft).
DLR Global Aviation Monitor: Deutlicher Einbruch im globalen und insbesondere deutschen Luftverkehr erwartet
16 March 2020
Für den globalen Luftverkehr erwarten die Forscher des Deutschen Zentrums für Luft- und Raumfahrt für die nächsten drei Monate einen Rückgang um etwa 25% im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum. Für Europa und insbesondere Deutschland wird sogar ein Rückgang von ungefähr 55% prognostiziert. Der Luftverkehr könnte sich anschließend über mehrere Monate auf niedrigerem Niveau weitgehend stabilisieren, wobei ein weiterer Rückgang bei Verschärfung der Corona-Krise nicht ausgeschlossen werden kann.
Decline in low-cost flights despite a record number of routes in summer 2019
5 November 2019
The growth of low-cost offerings came to a standstill in Germany during the 2019 summer season. Although there was a slight expansion of the route network, especially to Italy, the number of flights fell to approximately one percent below last year’s level. There has been a decline in flights to Spain and the UK, as well as internal flights within Germany. Among German-based, low-cost carriers, only Wizz carried out a significant expansion, while the two biggest airlines – Eurowings and Ryanair – saw reductions. These results have now been published by the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; DLR) in its ‘Low Cost Monitor 2/2019’, a report published every spring and autumn since 2006.
Paper on options to continue the EU ETS for aviation in a CORSIA-World
4 November 2019
From 2021, an increasing percentage of the carbon emission growth in international air transport will be subject to offsetting under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). Presently, it is still unclear if, and how, the existing EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) for aviation will continue. We assess the environmental impacts of different options (not) to continue with the EU ETS for aviation alongside CORSIA, and also discuss resulting monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) requirements.
DLR Global Aviation Monitor: Rückläufige Flugbewegungsaufkommen in Deutschland, verhaltenes Wachstum in der Welt bis Ende 2019
DLR Low Cost Monitor
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