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Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis

Head of department: Prof. Dr. habil. Veronika Eyring

The department develops innovative methods for the evaluation and analysis of Earth system models in comparison to observations with the aim to better understand and project the Earth system. The evaluation and ensemble analysis of Earth system models is crucial for model improvements and a prerequisite for reliable climate projections of the 21st century to be used as guidelines for climate policy. The department’s tasks include the development and application of new numerical methods for the analysis of large volumes of data.

Our research topics are:

• Analysis of Earth system model simulations in combination with observations to better understand the processes of climate change and the climate system.
• Development of ‘Emergent Constraints‘ to constrain key climate feedbacks in the Earth System with observations
• Constraining uncertainties in multi-model climate projections with observations
• Identification of systematic biases in Earth system models and recommendations for model improvements
• Development and application of innovative methods to analyse large volumes of data, including machine learning techniques to advance understanding and modelling of the Earth system
• Development of a diagnostic tool for efficient routine evaluation of ESMs with observations
• Contributions to international Model Intercomparison Projects (coordination, model simulations, and analysis), in particular to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

Our main tools and data are:

• The ESMValTool for routine and improved evaluation of Earth System models with observations
• Simulations with the global atmosphere-chemistry model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry)
• Simulations with Earth System models participating in international Model Intercomparison Projects (in particular CMIP)
• Observations and meteorological reanalyses from Observations for Climate Model Intercomparisons (obs4MIPs), Analysis for Model Intercomparison Projects (ana4MIPs) and other sources

Close collaborations in particular exist with the Department of Climate Modelling of the University of Bremen as well as with the Climate Informatics Group of the DLR Institute of Data Sciences and its external collaboration partners from the Friedrich-Schiller-University (Prof Denzler) and the Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry (Prof Reichstein) in Jena. The department is strongly linked to international research activities within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), with substantial contributions particularly to CMIP, and contributes regularly to international climate and ozone assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).