Funding organisation: Ministry of the Environment, Climate Protection and the Energy Sector of the Federal State Baden-Württemberg
Co-operation: DLR, IER University of Stuttgart
Project duration: April to October 2014
Contact: Frieder Borggrefe, Hans Christian Gils, Dr Thomas Pregger
The aim of the study is to show whether and when it may come to electricity congestion problems in the German supply system. The analysis is based on assumptions about the development of power plant capacities (power plants of today and under construction and projected expansion of renewable energies) with special focus on southern Germany. The analysis is carried out at three different regional levels. In addition to the situation in southern Germany the security of supply in Germany as a whole is examined. Installed capacities of power plants are therefore determined in regional resolution divided into southern and northern Germany and taking into account the intra-German transmission lines. Since the electricity market becomes more and more integrated across Europe, a further analysis includes power plant capacities of neighbouring European countries and their possible role for the supply situation in Germany. Two approaches are applied in order to answer the questions outlined above. In a first step, the development of power plant capacities is examined by a static analysis. In the second step a dynamic analysis is carried out applying the power system model REMix. These simulations of future supply situations are done in temporal and regional resolution in order to take into account effects of load balancing options and the transmission grid. The application of both approaches is based on two scenarios that represent on the one hand optimistic and on the other hand pessimistic developments in the coming years. Additional construction of planned fossil fuel power plants is not considered in this study. It shows therefore to which extent additional capacities are required to cover electricity demand in the next ten years. It is explicitly not considered in the frame of this study which type of power plants could fill supply gaps in the future best and whether or not capacity mechanisms are needed for their installation and operation.