Funding Organization: Ministry of the Environment, Climate Protection and Energy Sector Baden Württemberg
Co-operation: University of Stuttgart, Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER)
Project Duration: May 2015 to December 2015
Contact: Hans-Christian Gils
This study provides a model-based assessment of the future power supply security in southern Germany. Special attention is given to the consideration of the temporal variability in technical power plant availability.
Starting from today’s power plant park and its future development, the study assesses for the years 2020, 2023 and 2025, whether power supply shortfalls might appear. The analysis is performed applying the DLR energy system model REMix, which simulates the operation of power supply, storage and transmission in hourly resolution. In the first part of the study, power plant availabilities were simulated by IER using a stochastic approach which allows for a proper evaluation of unplanned power plant outages. The simulation was calibrated based on historic data of power plant outages provided by the European Energy Exchange (EEX). The hourly profiles of power plant availability were used in the second part of the study to analyse the power system operation with the DLR energy system model REMix. The European power supply was modelled for 300 variations of power plant availability providing the least-cost dispatch of all system components and the appearance and extent of supply shortfalls. Different supply scenarios were calculated assuming various power plant capacities, load and renewable power generation profiles, as well as grid extension.
The REMix results show that in an unfavourable scenario of an early dismantling of power plants within and outside of Germany, supply shortfalls might appear already in the year 2020. Assuming a more favourable development of a later dismantling, there are no shortfalls in southern Germany until the year 2025, in northern Germany until 2023. The maximum supply gap in Germany reaches around 9 GW in the unfavourable scenario for the year 2020 and 3 GW in the favourable scenario for 2025. These gaps can be closed by the provision of power plant reserve capacity, an extension of power plant lifetimes or alternative balancing options, including electric and thermal storage of demand side management.