A study by a consortium of Prognos AG, the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and the German Aerospace Center (DLR) on behalf of the BMWi analyzed the effects of the various energy policy instruments within the target architecture for the energy transition and how they promote the achievement of energy policy goals.
In a metastudy approach, existing studies on the impact of policy instruments and strategies were evaluated and transferred into a consolidated data basis. Where sufficient study results on instrument effects were not yet available, own cause and effect assessments were additionally carried out. Uncertainties in impact assessments were reflected by corresponding ranges of possible instrument effects. The impact analyses were based on the "target architecture" for the energy transition, which structures and prioritises the various quantitative goals of the federal government's energy concept according to sectors (electricity, building heating and transport) and fields of action (reduction of energy consumption, increase in the share of renewable energies). The interactions between the individual "steering targets" at sector level for the achievement of overriding "core objectives" (e.g. reduction of primary energy consumption, increase in the share of renewable energies in total energy consumption) were particularly taken into account within the target architecture.
In order to be able to make statements on the expected degree of target achievement of individual steering targets and core objectives for 2020, the aggregated instrument effects at the various levels of the target architecture were then calculated. This was done using a reference scenario that describes the hypothetical development of the energy markets without energy policy instruments.
The results of the analyses show that, from today's perspective, all sectoral energy efficiency targets for 2020 are expected to be missed. This applies in particular to efficiency targets for the heating and transport sectors. As a result, the overriding core objective of reducing primary energy consumption is also likely to fall short of its target. By contrast, most of the targets for the expansion of renewable energies will be achieved in the sectors by 2020 and will even be significantly exceeded in the electricity sector.
From today's perspective, the overall policy goal for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (target value: -40 %) is clearly missed (target value: -31.3 %).
Based on the results obtained, the target architecture was examined with a view to further optimization of the energy transition also with a view to later scenarios (especially 2030). In the process, possible corridors for steering targets as well as flexibility options for the objectives were identified and evaluated on the basis of the two key criteria of cost efficiency and system integration. It has been shown that, given the expected failures to meet targets by 2020, significant contributions from all sectors are needed to achieve the targets set for 2030. A short to medium-term focus on energy efficiency measures facilitates the achievement of objectives, especially from the point of view of system integration and overall costs. The development of renewable energies, especially in the electricity sector, can make a significant contribution to achieving the energy policy goals in 2030 - especially if renewable electricity can be used via sector coupling in the heating and transport sectors. Supply and demand side flexibility options for the system integration of high shares of volatile renewable energies must then be used more intensively.
The analyses and results of the study were included in the sixth Monitoring Report on the Energy Transition and are also available on the BMWi website.