Strategic Scenario Analysis – A first German-Australian focus project
Duration: October 2017 until April 2020
Funded by: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
Project Participants: Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster - Centrum für angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (CAWM) Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Hertie School of Governance gGmbH University of Melbourne (UoM) Australian National University (ANU) RMIT University Monash University
Project Manager at the Institute of Networked Energy Systems: Dr. Hans-Christian Gils
Project Description: In the START project, the partners pursue three overarching goals. The first objective is to establish and deepen bilateral research cooperation between German and Australian research organisations. The second objective is a comprehensive analysis and a deeper understanding of the transformation towards zero-emission energy systems in Germany (embedded in the European energy system) and Australia, focusing in particular on the common challenges of both countries, their respective technological options, regulatory barriers, policy options and economic opportunities. The third objective is to connect research with stakeholders from politics, business and society.
The project comprises four modules. Module A.1 will develop techno-economic scenarios for the electricity sector of both countries, with particular attention to crucial elements such as technical solutions for the system integration of high proportions of wind and solar power and the coupling with the heat and transport sector. Module A.2 extends the consideration to the entire energy system and fully covers the industrial, building and transport sectors. Specific challenges for emission reduction, such as comprehensive electrification or innovative carbon management, are identified and evaluated for each sector. Module B.1 is devoted to regulatory barriers and policy options to encourage investment in innovative technologies. The focus is on the structuring of markets, the management of sector coupling, the future role of so-called "prosumers", as well as incentive mechanisms and business models for demand flexibility. In module B.2, the technological and economic development paths are placed in the context of socio-economic and economic policy, as well as political control of the transformation processes of energy systems. Based on this, cross-sectoral policy frameworks are investigated, which also gain social acceptance and support.
DLR is involved in Module A.1 of the START project. Using the high resolution energy system model REMix, the contributions of various flexibility and sector coupling options for integrating intermittent renewable power generation into the electricity system and for decarbonizing the energy supply are investigated. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the technical potentials of flexible loads, various techno-economic scenarios of the development of the power supply system are examined. The flexible electricity loads taken into account include existing demand side management technologies and new consumers resulting from increased sector coupling. Examples of these are energy-intensive production processes and cross-sectional technologies on the one hand, and battery electric mobility, electrical heating and the production of synthetic fuels by hydrogen electrolysis and methanation on the other.