Development of innovative satellite-based methods for improved PV yield forecasts on various timelines for use at the distribution grid level
In order for solar energy to account for a higher proportion of the energy mix in Germany, the grid management system must be more effectively adapted in line with the increased weather dependency of the grid feed-in, and there is a need for planning data. This project is developing innovative energy meteorology methods for satellite-based radiation and PV yield forecasts at the system level and is testing their application in an energy management system at the distribution grid level.
November 2017 util February 2021
Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie
Hochschule Bonn-Rhein-Sieg, Internat. Zentrum für Nachhaltige Entwicklung (HBRS)
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU), Hans-Ertel Zentrum für Wetterforschung (HErZ)
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU), Meteorologisches Institut München (MIM)
Universität Heidelberg, Institut für Umweltphysik IUP-HD Prof. Dr. Klaus Pfeilsticker
Fraunhofer-Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik IWES
Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research TROPOS/Universität Leipzig, Institut für Meteorologie
Unternehmensverbund Allgäuer Überlandwerk GmbH
egrid applications & consulting GmbH
AllgäuNetz GmbH & Co. KG
Project Manager at the Institute of Networked Energy Systems:
In particular, the decentralised feed-in of electricity from photovoltaic systems is posing new challenges for distribution grid operators from the point of view of the expansion of the network and its operation as well as market integration. Improved forecasting of the weather-dependent variability of PV yields at the system level – as a key determinant of energy market costs – has direct economic consequences for balancing power and for redispatch. Moreover, improved forecasting enables exploitation of the potential for optimisation in voltage maintenance and idle power compensation. Furthermore, the provision of high-resolution satellite-based planning data is a key requirement for the efficient expansion of PV-based output through additional systems.
The overarching goal of the project is to make progress in developing innovative methods for satellite-based high-resolution radiation and output forecasts and PV planning data in terms of these two different aspects and thus to make a decisive contribution to the energy transition.
In particular, the scientists at the Institute of Networked Energy Systems are working on improving the precision with which satellites calculate the level of irradiance at the surface of the Earth, as the basis for planning data and forecasting methods. The use of higher-resolution satellite data is being examined in preparation for the coming Meteosat Third Generation satellites.
Satellite observations of cloud distribution enable automated determination of the expected classes of variability and the level of fluctuation of solar irradiance. This method is to be refined, validated and tested through actual use in order to assess the level of forecasting quality for the purpose of distribution grid management.