Development paths of a decentralised energy system in the interplay of decisions of private and commercial energy actors under uncertainty
Our future energy system must be designed to be particularly flexible so that demand and availability can be kept in balance at all times despite fluctuating energy sources such as sun and wind. Particularly valuable in this respect are decentralised flexible electricity consumers in private households such as heat pumps or electric cars. They offer – just like rooftop photovoltaic systems with electricity storage – the possibility to shift and change the grid load of households over time. The EN4U research project (funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action) is therefore concerned with a better understanding of the influence that decisions on the use of the flexibility options described can have on the energy market and how a system-friendly provision of this flexibility can be politically stimulated.
Duration: April 2021 to March 2024
Funded by: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action.
Project Participants:
Project Management at the Institute of Networked Energy Systems: Dr. Ulrich Frey
Project description: Flexible electricity consumers will have a significant impact on the electricity demand of households in the future energy system. Together with the introduction of time-variable electricity tariffs, this creates the conditions for the use of decentralised flexibilities, so that the importance of these flexibility options for the energy system could increase further. For the design of the future energy system, it is therefore necessary to understand the influence of the decisions on the use of household flexibility options can have on the energy market and how a system-friendly provision of this flexibility can be politically stimulated.
Against this background, the Institute of Networked Energy Systems is pursuing three main goals in the EN4U project:
Specifically, the uncertainties of the energy actors are first explored and quantified. Social and qualitative aspects, which are often neglected, are also considered. Based on this, the market penetration of the technologies mentioned will be analysed by means of diffusion models.
The operation of technologies in households is first modelled in a desaggregated manner and then abstracted by means of neural networks in such a way that the operating decisions can be efficiently integrated into comprehensive energy system models. By developing and using suitable methods of stochastic optimisation, uncertainties for operators of conventional as well as renewable power plant portfolios are mapped and their decisions optimised. All partial results and models are then coupled with an agent-based electricity market simulation. The effects of the uncertainties and the complex market interactions can thus be mapped so that, among other things, probable development paths for conventional and renewable power plant capacities can be derived.