Wie im vorherigen Jahr, so hatten Mitarbeitende des Instituts für Verkehrsforschung auch 2020 wieder die Möglichkeit, ihre Paper für den internen Wettbewerb einzureichen. Hier möchten wir Ihnen die Ergebnisse und GewinnerInnen des Paper-Wettbewerbs 2020 vorstellen.
The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries,
Journal of Transport Geography (Volume 85, May 2020, 102739)
Stefan Seum, Angelika Schulz, Tobias Kuhnimhof
Projections indicate that global transport may more than double by 2050. Future car stock and use are of paramount importance for drafting policy measures and for assessing emerging technology developments. This paper uses a unique forecasting approach combining quantitative data and qualitative expert judgements. Based on the historic development of vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in four OECD countries, the approach assesses potential future development paths for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and derives VKT saturation levels for these. For this purpose, we investigated eight factors with influence on car ownership and car use. A group of experts established factor values for the BRICS countries and compared these to the factor values in the OECD countries. Subsequently, we linked the factor values to levels of car use. Among the BRICS countries, we expect the lowest VKT saturation levels for India and China, mainly but not exclusively due to their spatial structures and transport policies. Spatial structures, socio-economic legacies and policies, among other factors, are leading to higher expected VKT saturation levels in Brazil, Russia and South Africa. Those countries also face challenges to establish alternatives to the private car.
Intermodality in European metropolises: The current state of the art, and the results of an expert survey covering Berlin, Copenhagen, Hamburg and Paris, Transport Policy (Volume 94, August 2020, Pages 109-122)
Mirko Goletz, Sonja Haustein, Christine Wolking, Alain L'Hostis
Intermodality, defined as using more than one mode for a single trip, is frequently discussed as a measure to help achieve more sustainable mobility in Europe, especially in cities. However, intermodality presents challenges for transport providers, and has its drawbacks for users, who prefer connections that do not require changing between transport modes. As a basis for forming recommendations to facilitate intermodality, we first analysed the status quo of intermodal mobility in four European metropolises: Berlin, Copenhagen, Hamburg and Paris. Subsequently, we conducted an expert survey in which we asked experts in the four cities about the future share and development of intermodality, its future relevance and potential of intermodality in transport planning, and how various factors on both the demand and supply side influence the level of intermodal activity. According to our findings, most experts foresee an increase in the share of intermodal trips. They also believe the relevance of including intermodality considerations in transport planning to be increasing. The increase of intermodal mobility will be driven by factors such as reduced vehicle ownership, but also by new mobility patterns. The latter can be explained by social factors such as urbanisation or digitalisation that affect the lifestyle of cities’ inhabitants in future.
Real-world insights on public charging demand and infrastructure use from electric vehicles, Environmental Research Letters (Volume 15, Number 10)
Michael Hardinghaus, Markus Löcher, John E Anderson
The city of Berlin has significantly expanded public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. As a result of this investment, real-world charging data for the city of Berlin are available for the first time. In addition to other metrics, this dataset contains specific information about carsharing vehicles. This research letter offers numerous insights into public charging demand and infrastructure. The results are only now available due to a sufficient fleet size of electric vehicles.
The analysis shows that the distribution of charging stations is very unequal in Berlin. The data also show that the infrastructure network is much denser in the city center. While there is an unequal distribution of infrastructure, we see that the utilization of infrastructure is relatively equal. This reflects unequal charging demand, as can be expected based on the location of the infrastructure. We also determine that the majority of public charging events come from free-floating carsharing vehicles. The analysis of infrastructure use shows that the edge of the city center has the highest rates of stations occupied by vehicles after completing charging. Carsharing users occupy infrastructure after charging significantly more than individual private and commercial users. However, if the pricing scheme allows, individual users also occupy infrastructure after completing charging.
The research letter provides several policy recommendations for the build-up and operation of charging infrastructure. These focus on charging demand from individual users, infrastructure efficiency, and carsharing operators and their business models. The results are timely as decisions on public charging infrastructure must be made now to meet electric vehicle demand.
IOP Publishing Link: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba716