The development of air transportation is subject to strong fluctuations. Thus, forecasting of the air traffic development is tainted with uncertainties. If the actual development of air traffic or the parameters describing the development deviate from an earlier prediction, for medium and long term planning processes of an airport it would be desirable to be able to make flexible alignments to the forecast. Therefore a tendency to integrate scenario planning approaches can be observed. They allow an integrative reproduction of necessary resources in order to show the effects and consequences of several long term investments in infrastructure.
One goal of the implementation of scenarios is to identify those factors influencing the future of the “object of investigation” air transportation in order to derive the impact of these factors on air transport planning. The main focus lies on making the forecast of the possible developments of these factors quantifiable whereby combinational scenarios for the future can be developed. This was not possible in such an innovative way before.
One objective of the project “Validation of Air Transport Scenarios” is to develop a methodical repertoire for verifying the drivers of air traffic demand and supply by airlines at the example of Hamburg Airport. Based on this methods forecasted flight schedules are deduced as a foundation for an assessment of technologies and investments in infrastructure. The framework for this integrated aircraft movement forecast for the first time ever combines the methods of scenario analysis with a soft computing approach. The project management lies within the Institute for Technical Informatic Systems at the University Hamburg.
In the scope of this project DLR Air Transportation Systems analyses how the expected passengers are to be allocated to the available aircrafts. Depending on the scenario parameter values relating the development of aircraft size and system capacity a share of aircrafts is determined, taking into account manufacturer-dependent new aircraft types and retrofits (reconstruction of existing aircraft types). For this purpose information about substitution of old models of aircraft, age of the fleet, average utilization and future aircraft are collected. Daily flight schedules are established as an outcome taking into account also the expected demand for air transport and the airport capacity. The schedules are required for the overall simulations.
As a result flight schedules can be generated for different scenarios and variable forecast horizons, for the first time representing influencing factors quantifiable. This enables planners and decision makers to react to changes in air transport development or its drivers at an early stage.
Project Duration : 01.07.2011 – 31.01.2013Project Funding Agency: Research Center JülichFunding Institution: Federal Ministry for Education and Research