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Team: Modelling and Geostatistical Methods

Risk Knowledge Risk knowledge is the central component of the disaster management cycle. The central aim of risk assessment is to provide dedicated information to efficiently plan and implement intervention systems for disaster risk reduction (DRR).

The increased number of natural and technical disasters throughout the world demands assessment and modeling of associated risks to society and the environment.
 
The central aim of the team is to conduct research on risk modeling and analysis to provide information and products relevant for disaster management.

The term risk is understood as defined by ISDR (2004), namely the “probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses (deaths, injuries, property, livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or environmental damage) resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions.”

Risk modeling encompasses the assessment of two components: hazard and vulnerability. The first is a quantification of:

• The probability of the occurrence and its magnitude/intensity, and
• The spatial distribution thereof.

Vulnerability assessment is more or less independent of hazard assessment and quantifies:

• The susceptibility and degree of exposure of vulnerable elements (population, economy, physical spheres and regions affected) to a stressor or hazard (extent of damage),
• The ability to respond (coping) and recover from the disastrous impact of a hazard.

An interdisciplinary approach is accordingly needed, bringing together research from the natural and social sciences.

The aim of this work is to develop and provide concepts and methodologies appropriate for describing and quantifying hazard and vulnerability. Spatially explicit risk assessment results and products constitute important information for effective disaster management. It should be stressed that risk assessment “serves as a general guideline for developing disaster preparedness and adaptation strategies based on a continuous strategy of risk and vulnerability assessment” (ISDR 2004).

The risk assessment products developed contain specific information reflecting the different phases within the disaster management cycle. Hence, their applicability for disaster management in the fields of disaster risk reduction (measures taken before a disaster occurs) and response (measures taken during and after a disaster) is ensured. The research focuses on delivering reliable information as contributions to the:

Pre-disaster phase

• Preparedness and awareness creation
• Development of adaptation and mitigation strategies
• Enhancement of disaster management capacities
• Evacuation and contingency planning

During a disaster

• Early warning

Post-disaster phase

• Emergency relief, humanitarian aid
• Recovery (reconstruction and rehabilitation).

Documentation of risk and vulnerability assessment strategies in technical manuals and application guidelines feeding into disaster management strategies at community and national levels constitutes an important aspect of the work (for example, the UNESCO IOC guidelines on tsunami risk assessment).

Additionally, the transfer and build-up of knowledge and competence are implemented by capacity building measures (trainings, workshops).

Risk Workflow

Schematic workflow of risk modeling