Resilience in the European power system: DLR researchers featured on "Energy to Ear" podcast

The background: In 2024, nearly 50% of Europe's electricity demand was met by renewable energies, setting a new record. Photovoltaic power generation exceeded coal-fired power production, while gas-based power generation declined for the fifth consecutive year. Nevertheless, there is still a pressing need to expand power supply, as the increasing sectoral integration will require not only covering current electricity demand but also providing energy to other intensive sectors such as industry, heating, and mobility.

Against this backdrop, Nienhaus and Nitsch argue that promoting more flexible feed-in of renewable energies is crucial. For instance, they suggest encouraging more photovoltaic installations with east-west orientation, rather than solely south-facing, to reduce peak mid-day feed-in and shift some production to morning and evening hours, thereby better aligning supply and demand throughout the day.

Regarding the resilience of the energy system, Nienhaus and Nitsch illustrate how a lively trade has developed between European power market zones. This interconnection is becoming increasingly important for balancing natural fluctuations in renewable energy production. In essence, while regional weather conditions can be mitigated through the European grid, the weather still has a significant impact on the energy system. Therefore, research at the interface of energy system modelling and weather forecasting is vital.

The researchers analysed how we can prepare the resilience of our energy systems for future weather extremes based on the VERMEER project findings. In the podcast, they explain how climate change already affects the production profiles of renewable energies and why historical weather data are becoming less reliable. In other words, we can no longer rely solely on past experience to predict future events. Nevertheless, understanding the impact of climate on the energy system remains essential, as we need to plan for the security of supply in our future systems today.

Specifically, the VERMEER project examined various types of extreme weather events and their influence on renewable energy production profiles. To do this, Nienhaus and Nitsch identified extreme situations from the past (such as the winters of 1996/1997 and 2011/2012) using residual load (the part of energy demand not covered by renewables) as an indicator of potential shortages. These data were then combined with specialised climate projections that model how weather events might develop until 2100.

Among other findings, the study revealed that wind turbines in the second half of the 21st century will generate less power in July and August. This needs to be taken into account when designing future systems. Additionally, the frequency of dark doldrum events is expected to increase significantly by 20-24% according to the VERMEER results.

In the podcast, Nienhaus and Nitsch explain how European power trading can help balance regional and weather-related differences. However, they also emphasise that during large-scale weather events affecting Germany and neighbouring countries, these measures alone will not suffice, and backup power plants will continue to play a crucial role in planning.

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