How scenarios become action options for energy policy decision-making processes

Numerous studies outline possible development paths for Germany's future energy and transportation system using scientific scenarios. Some have a purely prognostic character or examine the impact of specific measures in an open-ended manner, while others show technically and economically plausible ways to achieve Germany's energy policy goals, particularly climate neutrality by 2045. However, these studies are based on different assumptions, such as population growth, economic performance and structure, energy carrier prices, or technological development. Moreover, the models used differ in terms of methodology, system boundaries, and technological granularity. As a result, numerous methodologically sound analyses exist, but they often lead to significantly differing conclusions.

In the SCOPE.efzn research project, researchers from the Institute of Networked Energy Systems are currently examining this collection of valuable individual results in a meta-analysis – with the overarching project goal of providing concrete action options for energy policy decision-making processes based on the knowledge gained. The path to achieving this is complex: first, transformation strategies for sectors and energy carriers need to be identified where the various scenarios yield significantly different results. Based on these identified areas of tension, a reference scenario and sensitivity analyses will be developed in conjunction with the other project participants. These will ultimately allow the consequences of uncertainties for the transformation process to be explored using an energy system model. The insights gained from this will form the basis for naming concrete action options based on a uniquely broad scientific data foundation.

To ensure a practice-oriented and relevant quality control of assumptions prior to modelling, the DLR project team presented its initial identification of "areas of tension" to the project-accompanying Sounding Board, a transdisciplinary panel of different stakeholder groups, in Berlin on 23 October 2025. Three main topics served to illustrate the areas of tension in current energy scenarios: the development of electricity demand, electricity generation from renewable energies, and the resulting need for flexible power generation, and finally the development of hydrogen demand and supply.

In principle, all scenarios considered agree that electricity demand will increase significantly – driven by increased electricity demand for heat pumps, electric cars, electrically generated process heat in industry, or for electrolysis to produce hydrogen. At the same time, it becomes apparent that assumptions about future absolute demand differ significantly between scenarios, as they are for example based on different import quotas for hydrogen – and correspondingly different domestic electricity demand for electrolysers. The differences are particularly large between scenarios that describe paths to a climate-neutral energy system in Germany and those that examine how the energy system would develop without additional measures to achieve the targets. Using this example, Dr. Thomas Vogt, head of the Energy System Analysis department at the Institute of Networked Energy Systems, highlights: "Energy scenarios are not a crystal ball. They are tools for understanding possible futures." However, not all scenarios pursue the same goal, as he emphasises: "Normative scenarios show ways to achieve a desired future, such as climate neutrality. In contrast, exploratory scenarios analyse how the energy system could develop under different conditions. This difference is crucial when discussing assumptions, paths, and images, as it determines whether we are working towards a goal or merely explore possibilities."

One of the central areas of tension identified at the Sounding Board meeting was the wide range of results for energy and infrastructure demand – even in scenarios that achieve climate neutrality by 2045. At the same time, participants emphasised that the developments outlined in the scenarios, such as replacing old heating systems with heat pumps, the breakthrough of electromobility, or the ramp-up of a hydrogen economy, are by no means self-sustaining and can be hindered by factors that are often inadequately considered in scenario studies. Furthermore, the need to better prepare and communicate the interactions and interdependencies within the energy system for individuals outside the scientific community was stressed.