VECTOR21 – Vehicle Technology Scenario Model

Technology Impact

• Quantify market potential and production volumes for new components and vehicle technologies
• Stress test your own component developments against realistic market viability
• Assess how evolving battery chemistries and bidirectional charging affect competitiveness
• Track ADAS and automation diffusion across car and truck markets
• Analyze fleet level adoption of circular economy elements, from battery second life to recycling

Strategic Insights

• Techno-economic assessment of vehicle concepts across segments and weight classes
• Model emerging technologies: battery chemistries, bidirectional charging (V2G), autonomous driving levels
• Compare market entry conditions across varying socioeconomic and regulatory scenarios
• Identify the barriers and success factors that determine technology adoption speed

Policy Implications

• Design and test policy measures such as CO₂ fleet regulation, subsidies, or fuel and energy pricing before implementation
• Quantify greenhouse gas impacts of regulatory packages and transformation pathways
• Provide an independent evidence base for national and European automotive strategies
• Support cross sectoral climate neutrality assessments in combination with other DLR models

VECTOR21 has informed projects including the Strukturstudie BW 2023, Ariadne and BEniVer, and is currently applied to policy quantification for the Federal Ministry of Transport. The model is continuously extended to address new research questions.

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Neutral and Scientifically Founded Consulting

VECTOR21 provides political and economic decision-makers with independent, science-based market analyses. The software can be continuously extended and adapted to specific research questions.

Research-Driven Innovation

Ongoing research and technology assessments ensure that VECTOR21 reflects the latest developments in vehicle concepts and provides scientifically robust market analyses.

Regional to International Market Modelling

The software enables market segmentation at regional level (e.g., NUTS3, RegioStaR4), incorporating country-specific policies as well as interdependent simulation of international markets.

Integrated and Regularly Updated Datasets

VECTOR21 is based on extensive, regularly updated input datasets. Simulations can start immediately, with users modifying only the inputs needed for their scenario.

Dynamic Scenario Development

Our team develops additional software functions and scenarios together with various internal and external partners. Core datasets can be shared across projects via GitLab and updated based on stakeholder inputs.

Intuitive Data Visualization

Complex data is prepared and discussed in an understandable way. Strategic conclusions can be drawn quickly through interactive result dashboards and scenario managers.

Customer Side

A customer agent is modelled for each customer segment. The granularity of customer characteristics can be adjusted, as can their geographical distribution. A customer segment represents a group with similar socioeconomic characteristics (e.g., income, location, driving behaviour). In addition to private customers, a distinction can also be made between corporate take-home vehicles and fleet customers.

Utility-Based Purchase Decision

The purchase decision of each agent is simulated by an algorithm that compares the customer's needs with the characteristics of the offered vehicle. Each agent selects an offer and maximizes its utility function.

Factors Considered:

• Purchase price
• Operating costs
• Acceleration
• Range
• CO₂ emissions
• Charging speed
• Vehicle lifetime
• Bidirectional charging
• Safety
• Time benefit

Supply Side

The bottom-up generated vehicles feature detailed vehicle technologies and costs. VECTOR21 considers various vehicle segments and powertrain types:

Technology Type:

• Internal combustion engines incl. mild hybrid (gasoline, diesel), hybrid (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV), battery electric (BEV), fuel cell (FCEV), compressed natural gas (CNG), synthetic fuels
• Different battery chemistries (NMC, LFP, Na-Ion, SSB)
• SAE Levels of automated vehicles

Passenger Cars:

• Size segments: Small, Medium, Large

Commercial Vehicles:

• Weight classes: 3.5 t, 7.5 t, 12 t, 18 t, 26 t, 40 t
• Vehicle classes: N1, N2, N3

The granularity of vehicle modelling as well as the predefined technology development steps can be adapted to the needs of our stakeholders. For each agent, the model generates a set of vehicle options that reflect the latest technological standards and cost developments in the automotive industry, including improvements in battery systems, electric motors, and power electronics.

Political Influences
Country-specific taxes, subsidies and regulations

Supply-side Framework
Model availabilities, strategies to respond to CO₂ regulations, production constraints

Energy Costs
Modelling of energy prices from source to end user

Battery Techno-Economics
Cell chemistry-specific cost developments

VECTOR21 Simulation Results

The VECTOR21 simulation delivers a wide range of results that support your strategic decisions in vehicle markets. The most important results are:

Market Shares
Of powertrain systems and components in different socio-demographic and geographical segments

Cost Development
Of vehicles and vehicle components over time

Diffusion of New Technologies
With feedback loops regarding vehicle component costs

Energy Consumption
Development of energy and fuel demand of the vehicle stock

Emissions and CO₂ Limits
CO₂ emission balance of the vehicle fleet

Battery Capacity
Capacity and utilization of the battery electric vehicle fleet incl. discrete modelling of bidirectional BEVs