Research project SCOPE.efzn
Scenarios, options and parameter spaces for current energy policy decision processes
In recent years, a considerable number of scientific scenarios and guidance studies on Germany's energy transition have been published. The results of these studies often differ significantly from each other. This is due to the fact that the underlying energy scenarios are based on different assumptions about future technological, political and economic developments in the energy system. Additionally, a variety of methods are used for modelling. To categorise these different guidance studies and to analyse previously unconsidered factors and system parameters in a scenario-based, scientific sensitivity calculation, the Lower Saxony Ministry for the Environment, Energy and Climate Protection initiated the research project SCOPE.efzn ("Scenarios, options and parameter spaces for current energy policy decision processes").
Research project SCOPE.efzn | |
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Duration | June 2025 to Mai 2026 |
Funded by | Lower Saxony Ministry for the Environment, Energy and Climate Protection |
Project participants | - Institute of Networked Energy Systems
- Lower Saxony Energy Research Centre (efzn)
- Leibniz University Hannover, Institute for Solid-State Physics
- Institute for Solar Energy Research Hameln (ISFH)
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The aim of the SCOPE.efzn project is to articulate concrete policy options based on meta-analysis and simulations. In other words, it is explicitly not about creating another guidance study. To ensure practical quality assurance and feedback of the research results, the overall project is supplemented by the transfer element of a so-called Sounding Board. This refers to a transdisciplinary body, consisting of different actor groups from business, politics and society, which should reflect the perspectives of various actor groups. With its practical and participatory character, the Sounding Board thus serves as a concrete feedback and mirror moment for the challenges, wishes and needs of these actor groups.
Within the SCOPE.efzn project, the Institute of Networked Energy Systems examines a collection of selected scenarios as part of a meta-analysis. Some of them have a purely prognostic character or examine without predetermined outcome the effect of certain measures, others, in contrast, show technically and economically plausible ways of how Germany's energy policy goals, and particularly climate neutrality by 2045, can be achieved. However, they all are based on sometimes very different assumptions, such as population development, economic performance and structure, energy carrier prices or technology development.
The approach involves firstly identifying those transformation strategies for sectors where the various scenarios diverge significantly. Based on these tension fields, a reference scenario as well as sensitivity analyses will be developed in collaboration with other project participants. The consequences of uncertainties for the transformation process can then be explored using an energy system model. The insights gained from this form the basis for identifying concrete action options based on a uniquely broad scientific database.
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