A guide to meeting the huge demand for electricity

"The longer we wait, the more expensive it becomes"

“Regarding the expansion dynamics of wind energy, the studies examined yielded quite consistent results, which strengthens the reliability of the meta-study's statements,” says Dr Tobias Naegler, SCOPE.efzn project manager at the Institute of Networked Energy Systems of the German Aerospace Center (DLR). “And because the scenario results typically stem from cost-optimising models, this essentially means: the less we expand now, i.e., the longer we wait, the more expensive it becomes – or we fail to reach our legally binding climate protection targets.”

According to the meta-study, higher installation rates are needed not only for wind energy but also for technologies that provide greater flexibility to the electricity supply. Alongside stationary batteries, these include gas-fired power plants operating on synthetic gas, hydrogen, or fossil gas with simultaneous carbon capture and storage (CCS). In contrast, the results indicate that a cost-optimal expansion for photovoltaic systems could still be achieved through installation rates comparable to those of previous years. However, constant energy policy conditions for the coming years are by no means guaranteed, partly because subsidy regulations are in constant evolution.

Gross electricity demand is rising sharply

There is no doubt that electricity demand will rise significantly – among other things, due to the switch to electric heat pumps for heating, the use of electric cars, and the conversion of industrial process heat from fossil fuels to electricity and hydrogen – to meet the agreed CO₂ emissions targets. According to the meta-study, the annual gross electricity demand could exceed current levels (around 526 terawatt-hours last year) by at least 250 to 300 terawatt-hours within ten years. Some scenarios even assume an additional requirement of up to 500 terawatt-hours.

Against this backdrop, the studies examined illustrate that a steady, and in some cases significantly increased, expansion of PV and wind installations is necessary until roughly the middle of the next decade to achieve energy policy goals. “By then at the latest, electricity from renewable sources will not only dominate power generation but also become our most important primary energy source in terms of total energy demand. The time for decisions is pressing,” says Naegler.

Additional positive incentives required

The study results suggest that rising electricity demand and the dynamic electrification behind it can only be achieved through significant additional incentives compared to current regulations. At the same time, obstacles such as long planning and approval periods must be removed, and grid expansion accelerated. “From a scientific perspective, a comprehensive package of measures is therefore required, including questions of financial viability and socially acceptable distribution of costs,” explains Naegler. Furthermore, programmes are needed that work towards both the necessary increase in skilled workers and a greater public acceptance.  

According to the meta-study, the importance of hydrogen will increase significantly – both as an energy carrier for process heat and as a flexible long-term storage medium in the energy sector, and as a raw material for industry. Nevertheless, future hydrogen demand remains a major unknown in the examined scenarios. This is illustrated by strongly diverging demand estimates between 160 and 600 terawatt-hours for 2045, or projected import quotas between 14 and 92 percent. Accordingly, the need for electrolysers in Germany varies between 25 and 120 GW by 2045 across the studies.

Declining import share in primary energy demand