Department Air Transport Development

How will global air transport evolve – and what will this mean for resulting emissions? When will airports, and by extension the entire aviation system, reach their capacity limits? What role can emerging technologies play in making air transport more climate-compatible? And how are fleet structures changing in response to technological innovation? These and similar questions are key focus areas for the Department of Air Transport Development.

The department develops and analyses air traffic forecasts and scenarios that serve as a vital basis for the planning and optimisation of the aviation system – supporting political decision-makers, public authorities, airlines, airports, and air navigation services.

Our Work in Air Transport Development

Our research provides robust, data-driven answers to the dynamic changes within the global air transport system – from a transport science, technological, political, and societal perspective. The aim is to actively help shape the transition towards a climate-compatible, efficient and future-proof air transport system. We work in an interdisciplinary manner and in close collaboration with other DLR institutes as well as external partners.

Our Research Priorities

We focus on the following key areas:

• Status Quo Analysis and Forecasting of Demand and Supply: We develop airport-specific models in which demand and supply in air transport are represented in an integrated and sequential manner – adaptable to various future scenarios.
• Cross-Segment Market Analysis: We examine the development of all types of aircraft – from conventional concepts such as mainliners, regional aircraft, business jets and small aircraft transport (SAT) to innovative concepts such as air taxis, drones and supersonic aircraft (SST), always in the context of the required infrastructure.
• Technology Assessment in a Transport Context: We investigate how new aviation technologies could transform air transport – taking into account environmental impacts, infrastructure requirements, and user acceptance.
• Spatial Analyses: Our work covers all scales from local to global – from urban air mobility to long-haul intercontinental transport.
• Scenario-Based Future Analyses: We develop flexible future scenarios that map political and technological developments and simulate different pathways for the evolution of air transport.
• Sustainability-Oriented Modelling: Our models enable assessment of air transport developments in terms of climate targets, emissions, and broader societal questions.

A Foundation for Planning, Policy and Innovation

To analyse and assess developments in air transport, we use a wide range of data-driven, model-based and scenario-oriented methods. Our goal is to deliver realistic, scalable and application-oriented research that captures both short-term changes and long-term trends.

A central focus of our work lies in the forward-looking analysis of air transport. We provide well-founded insights into the future development of traffic volumes, fleet structures, and capacity requirements. Our models are based on long-maintained international datasets and are continuously enhanced. This allows us to provide reliable decision-making support for policymakers, public authorities, and the aviation industry.

We work with the following methodological approaches: