The project "DEvelopment Pathways for Aviation up to 2070" (DEPA 2070), conducted by the German Aerospace Center (DLR), investigated the future development of passenger aviation up to the year 2070. The focus was on analysing trends, developing aviation scenarios, and assessing innovative technologies and their impacts on the environment, economy, and society. DEPA 2070 has been successfully completed and now offers concrete perspectives for the sustainable transformation of aviation based on extensive analyses.
Project duration: 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2024
Motivation and Background
Within DEPA 2070, the German Aerospace Center (DLR) developed comprehensive scenarios for the future of passenger aviation, aiming to identify new technological solutions that align ecological and economic objectives. The project analysed long-term trends in areas such as propulsion technologies, alternative fuels, and maintenance. External influencing factors such as population growth, energy prices, and geopolitical developments were also considered.
Solutions for the Future of Aviation
The DEPA 2070 project supports the strategic orientation of the aviation industry and helps to design realistic development pathways for passenger aviation. Against the backdrop of current challenges such as climate change and increasing mobility demand, the project aims to identify solutions that make aviation climate-compatible and future-proof.
Research Topics
Creation of realistic development scenarios: Describing and quantifying detailed, vehicle-specific development and aviation scenarios up to 2070 (conservative, progressive, and normative), based on trends in technology, energy, and infrastructure, as well as societal and political changes.
Technology and sustainability analysis: Analysing the ecological, economic, and social effects of long-term aviation development. This includes evaluating the aforementioned scenarios and exploring the technological and economic potential of innovative aviation technologies.
Evaluation of future aircraft concepts: Identifying, evaluating, and developing technology pathways for forward-looking aircraft concepts and new market segments, considering both ecological and economic sustainability.
The objective of DEPA 2070 was to bring together technological, ecological, economic, and societal developments into a holistic vision for the future up to 2070.
Trend analyses: System analyses and scenario development regarding the market penetration of technologies and their possible evolution.
Technology roadmaps: Creating detailed roadmaps for various future aircraft concepts to estimate the development and market penetration of new technologies.
Impact analyses: Assessing the long-term impacts of new technologies on noise, CO₂ emissions, mobility, as well as the economic effects (such as gross value added and employment) up to 2070.
Project Completion and Results
The DEPA 2070 project was completed at the end of 2024. The main findings are published in a detailed project report as well as a concise summary.
Despite differing development pathways, all scenarios examined show that technological innovations are crucial to securing the long-term competitiveness of the aviation industry. Especially the early deployment of alternative propulsion systems and energy sources offers not only ecological but also economic opportunities in global markets.
DEPA 2070 demonstrated that with ambitious technologies and sustainable energy carriers, aviation can achieve its climate goals – while continuing to make a significant contribution to the economy and society.
The DEPA 2070 Project – Long-term Development Paths in Passenger Aviation
Project duration: 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2024
Participating institutes and facilities: DLR Institute of Aerodynamics and Flow Technology, DLR Institute of Combustion Technology, DLR Institute of Electrified Aero Engines, DLR Institute of Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul, DLR Institute of System Architectures in Aeronautics, DLR Institute of Air Transport, DLR Programme Directorate for Aviation
Design of two noise-reducing aircraft (with the DLR Institute of System Architectures in Aeronautics), calculation of noise at representative airports, airport traffic analysis (with the DLR Institute of Air Transport)
Trend analysis and scenario development for maintenance, regression models for improved operating cost analysis for future aircraft, investigation of infrastructure requirements for new aircraft concepts
Development of technology roadmaps, creation of forward-looking aircraft concepts and their evaluation, contributions to cost and fleet modelling
DEPA 2050 and DEPA – ext.
DEPA 2070 builds on the findings of its predecessor project, DEPA 2050, which was conducted between 2019 and 2020. DEPA 2050 laid the groundwork for the regular development of holistic aviation scenarios and forecasts within the DLR and showed that a doubling of demand by 2050 is likely – a demand that cannot be sustainably met using current technologies. The project report concluded that innovative technologies and alternative fuels are essential for the future of aviation and that their market introduction must be accelerated.
Building on the DEPA 2070 project, the follow-up project DEPA – ext. places greater emphasis on uncertainty factors affecting current air traffic scenarios. The aim is to supplement existing studies and deepen validation efforts. These uncertainty factors include potential capacity, production and supply chain bottlenecks, as well as possible changes in aviation networks up to the year 2070.
