Rethinking Aviation – in Realistic and Alternative Scenarios
DEPA – ext.
Exploratory Future Scenarios for a Sustainable Aviation System of Tomorrow
What might air transport look like in the year 2070? Which technologies will prevail – and where will development and innovation reach their limits?
The project DEPA – ext. ("DEvelopment Pathways for Aviation – extended") takes aviation further. Building on its predecessor, DEPA 2070, this new project aims to systematically expand existing aviation scenarios, with a strong emphasis on uncertainties.
The focus lies on potential bottlenecks in production, infrastructure or energy supply, as well as the impacts on the air transport network. Particular attention is paid to environmental effects such as CO₂ emissions and aircraft noise, as well as to the technological developments expected over the coming decades.
Project duration: 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2027
Updated Perspectives for Aviation
DEPA – ext. is a research project by the German Aerospace Center (DLR). Its aim is a holistic evaluation of long-term developments in aviation – based on both realistic and alternative scenarios. These scenarios consider technological, ecological, economic and infrastructural aspects, as well as potential bottlenecks and major challenges facing the future air transport system – going well beyond previous modelling approaches.
Why DEPA – ext. is Needed
Previous studies often focus on so-called "most likely" scenarios – projecting what is considered the most probable future. However, uncertainties – such as capacity constraints, technological bottlenecks or geopolitical changes – are often left out.
DEPA – ext. takes a broader approach and addresses questions such as:
What are the implications of supply chain disruptions or production delays for the entire aviation system?
What happens if new, highly innovative concepts like autonomous "people movers" become widespread?
Which propulsion systems are viable in the long term – including from both an economic and environmental perspective?
The project aims to critically examine prevailing assumptions in aviation research and to develop robust, reliable recommendations for policymakers and industry – considering “wild card effects” and extreme events.
Research Topics in DEPA – ext.
Based on results from the DEPA 2070 project, DEPA – ext. develops and compares various scenarios for aviation up to 2070. These include both realistic technology scenarios and exploratory pathways involving radically new approaches. The scenarios are assessed across multiple levels – from individual airports to the global aviation system. Key areas of investigation include:
Possible fleet compositions using conventional and alternative propulsion systems
CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and aircraft noise across different scenarios
Capacity and infrastructure aspects, as well as dependencies on production and supply chains
Changes in the air transport network due to new transport concepts and mobility solutions
Systemic barriers and development obstacles to sustainable transformation
DEPA–ext. Research Approach
Overview of the components of DEPA – ext. as an extension of the work conducted in the projects DEPA 2050 and DEPA 2070.
The predecessor project DEPA 2070 laid the groundwork: it developed a framework of conservative and progressive technology scenarios and supplemented it with a systemic assessment structure and a comparison to a normative future scenario. DEPA – ext. builds on this foundation – with an expanded perspective, deeper validation, and a stronger focus on uncertainty factors and system interactions. The earlier DEPA 2050 project served as a basis for regularly developing integrated aviation scenarios and forecasts within DLR.
Project Goals
DEPA – ext. is not just about outlining how aviation might develop – it also aims to provide clear orientation. Key objectives at a glance:
Holistic evaluation of long-term development pathways for aviation
Systematic analysis of technological and ecological opportunities and limitations of new concepts
Derivation of sound policy and strategic recommendations for stakeholders in government, administration and industry
Contribution to the implementation of the DLR strategy for a climate-compatible air transport system
Participating DLR Institutes and Facilities
The project brings together expertise from several DLR institutes. Together, they are developing a scalable analysis and assessment system that can be used beyond the project itself.
DEPA – ext. explores what is possible, where opportunities lie – and where realistic boundaries exist. In doing so, it provides a sound foundation for a sustainable, climate-compatible air transport system – from a technological, ecological, and strategic standpoint.
At a Glance: DEPA – ext. | Rethinking Aviation – in Realistic and Alternative Scenarios
Project duration: 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2027
Participating DLR Institutes and Facilities: Institute of Aerodynamics and Flow Technology, Institute of Combustion Technology, Institute of Electrified Aero Engines, Institute of Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul, Institute of System Architectures in Aeronautics, Institute of Air Transport, DLR Programme Directorate for Aeronautics
