Researchers at the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt; DLR) expect global air traffic to drop by approximately 25 percent over the next three months compared to the same period last year. For Europe, and Germany in particular, a decline of around 55 percent is predicted. Air traffic could then largely stabilise at a lower level for several months, although a further decline cannot be ruled out if the Coronavirus crisis worsens. The forecast of the Global Aviation Monitor published by DLR takes into account flight plan cancellations already made and those still to be expected in the short term. The forecast refers to the situation as of 13 March 2020, but the situation is currently very unpredictable. However, as the researchers at the DLR Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research in Cologne emphasise, a rapid upward trend can be expected after the end of the Coronavirus crisis, so that the longer-term effects of the crisis are expected to be limited – similar to those experienced after 9/11, SARS or the financial crisis of 2008/09.
Global Aviation Monitor
The Global Aviation Monitor (GAM) is published quarterly by the DLR Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research. The report covers the current situation for global, European and German air transport, and provides a short-term forecast for the next three months. Key stakeholders in the aviation sector are thus made aware of changes in global air transport as early as possible. A new traffic light presentation in the report provides an instant overview of how the individual markets will develop over the coming months.