Ozone hole above the Antarc­tic: de­vel­op­ment 1960 -2100

Ozone hole above the Antarc­tic: de­vel­op­ment 1960 -2100
Credit: DLR/Dameris.

Ozone hole above the Antarctic: development 1960 -2100

Anal­y­sis of sim­u­la­tion da­ta from the ES­Ci­Mo project (Earth Sys­tem Chem­istry in­te­grat­ed Mod­elling): the mod­el im­age on the left shows the ex­pan­sion of the ozone hole above the Antarc­tic on 30 Septem­ber 2016. The ozone hole is largest in Septem­ber. DLR sci­en­tists were able to use the long-term sim­u­la­tion from 1960 to 2100 (mod­el im­age on the right) to demon­strate that the ozone lay­er in the strato­sphere, which be­came rapid­ly de­plet­ed af­ter 1980, will re­cov­er again from 2035 on­ward. The anal­y­sis con­firms that pro­hi­bi­tion of ozone-de­plet­ing chlo­roflu­o­ro­car­bons (CFCs) was an ef­fec­tive mea­sure with­in the Mon­tréal Pro­to­col.

Analysis of simulation data from the ESCiMo project (Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling): the model image on the left shows the expansion of the ozone hole above the Antarctic on 30 September 2016. The ozone hole is largest in September. DLR scientists were able to use the long-term simulation from 1960 to 2100 (model image on the right) to demonstrate that the ozone layer in the stratosphere, which became rapidly depleted after 1980, will recover again from 2035 onward. The analysis confirms that prohibition of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was an effective measure within the Montréal Protocol.

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