Calculated ground-level temperature changes caused by air transport (in millikelvin) using various assumptions about future developments up to the end of the century. The upper estimate represents the continued use of present aircraft technologies (Current Technology). Other estimates show a continuation of the previous increases in efficiency (Business as Usual), carbon-dioxide-neutral growth from 2020 (CORSIA) and the successful implementation of the targets previously set out in Flightpath 2050. These are contrasted with an assessment of possible areas of potential for reduction on the basis of existing technology concepts (ECATS) and the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic if recovery occurs within 15 years, together with a sustainable shift in travel behaviour. The five percent limit on the air transport contribution to global warming has been set in relation to the Paris climate targets (limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2.0 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels).